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Mounting apprehensions are present over the possibility of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to brief comments on social media from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

There have been no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has shown completion events of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a declaration that the conflict was finished – a move that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

But relations have later worsened once more.