A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
